I was trying to calculate the probability of death
or wounding amongst US troops serving in Iraq. I had used
the current offically admitted figure of about
1,000 deaths and divided that by the number of troops deployed
over the last 12 months. I then tried to adjust
for exposed versus unexposed positions - only a portion of the
troops are working convoys and other missions
which put them in the line of fire. My estimate was that 1 in 100
soldiers were killed per 12 months of exposure
to hostile situations in Iraq. The wounding rate depends more on
which figure for casualties you use. Even using
the shuffle-and-hide Pentagon numbers, I calculated the rate to be
about 1 in 12 per 12 months of risk exposure
in Iraq that a US soldier will be wounded badly enough for the
current regime to acknowledge the fact.
It turns out that my 1 in 100 deaths and 1 in 12 wounded estimates are, sadly, on the low side:
Attacks
Disillusion Marines
By Mike Dorning
The Chicago Tribune
Sunday 19 September 2004
> Since the 2nd Battalion, 4th Marine Regiment,
deployed in the area six months ago, 34 of its members
have died and more than a quarter of the 1,000-member
unit has been wounded.
Dorning's figures are for a Marine unit serving
as convoy escorts.
They have served only half of their tour which
yields dead/wounded rate estimates of:
1 in 17 killed
1 in 2 wounded.
Getting wounded is a coin toss?
Being killed is about the same odds as drawing
an ace out of a deck of cards?
This is a sobering perspective.
Though I doubt it will sober up Bush enough for
him to come up with an exit strategy.
Faun