This was put out by Merrill Lynch the other day:
12th: Slowing Real Wage and Disposable Income
Growth – Both wage
growth and disposable personal income growth,
which propped up
consumer spending during last year's recession,
appear to finally beslowing.
11th: Plummeting Consumer Confidence – Consumer confidence measures are at eight-year lows.
10th: Impending Threat of War In Iraq – The threat
of war in Iraq is tightening consumer wallets
and the outbreak of war could keep consumers
glued to the TV.
9th: Rising Oil Prices – The threat of war has boosted oil prices by nearly 50% year-over year.
8th: Backed Up Merchandise At West Coast Ports
– The backlog of containers at the West Coast
ports could result in retailers marking down
late arriving goods.
7th: Low Financing Rates May Boost Auto Sales
– Lower interest rates and increased promotional
activities may boost auto sales, to the detriment
of general merchandise sales.
6th: No "Must-Have" Fashion – For the second consecutive
year, there are few, if any,
"must-have" fashion items to drive apparel sales.
5th: Six Fewer Shopping Days – This year's late
Thanksgiving will result in the shortest possible
Christmas selling season (26 days). We estimate
that this factor could reduce Christmas sales
(Nov/Dec combined) by 1.6%.
4th: Declining Payrolls & Increasing Unemployment
– Payroll declines and increasing unemployment
will pressure consumer wallets.
3rd: Potentially Bloated Inventories – Weak sales
in September and October may leave retail inventories
(most notably at the department stores) somewhat
bloated, leading to increased markdowns over the next two months.
2nd: Stock Market Declines Cause Negative Wealth
Effect – A 40% decline in the S&P 500 over the past
two years has hurt consumers' perception of their
own wealth and may limit discretionary spending.
1st: The Post-9/11 Sales Surge – Last year's "Post-9/11
Sales Surge," when consumers increased their spending
on general merchandise at the expense of travel
and lodging, has created difficult comparisons for broadline retailers.
Thanks to Zepp News
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