THE HEADLINES on the recount story are, per usual, wrong. A careful
reading of the data compiled by the Herald and its parent company Knight-Ridder
(in a partnership with USA Today) reveals that the newspaper answered only
one question conclusively: “What would have happened if the Supreme Court
had not intervened to end the counting?” The answer to that question, as
best as the Herald and its accounting firm, BDO Seidman, LLP, could determine,
is that Bush’s initial margin of 537 votes would have increased to 1,665
votes, had the counters employed the charitable chad-counting standard
desired by the Gore camp.
BOTH SIDES ERRED
This piece of news leads us to
two immediate conclusions. First, the conservative Republican majority
on the Supreme Court sullied the good name of that institution prematurely
and unnecessarily. Second, Team Gore’s inept response to the post-election
debacle also greased the skids for Bush’s backdoor entry to the White House.
Bush hero Justice Antonin Scalia should have kept his partisan comments
to himself when he explained that the count needed to be shut down to insure
public ignorance of the genuine result. His exact words were — “Count first,
and rule upon legality afterwards. That is not a recipe for producing election
results that have the public acceptance democratic stability requires.”
The court’s dishonorable participation in cutting short a ballot count
for reasons it could not even coherently explain and hence, refused to
allow to serve as a legal precedent, proved entirely superfluous.
A TRUE TRAVESTY
The reason the court needn’t have bothered is almost entirely due to
the incompetence — and considerable bad political faith — of the Gore camp.
Its protestations to the contrary, the Gore team was never interested in
a full and fair count of all of the Florida votes. It wanted only the votes
recounted that it believed were most likely to yield more Gore votes. Stupidly,
it ignored those Republican counties where most of the irregularities existed
and it ignored the potential treasure trove of “overvotes,” in which confused
voters accidentally marked their ballots for both a presidential and a
vice-presidential candidate, or both marked a candidate on the main ballot
and then wrote his name in a second time to make certain that everybody
understood their choice. In a true travesty of the spirit of democratic
equality, these over-enthusiastic voters had their votes disqualified in
exactly the same fashion as those who marked the two candidates because
nobody could be bothered to count them.
Beyond these rather narrow conclusions,
however, the Herald recount serves only to generate more confusion. It
calculates that using the strictest possible vote count standard — the
one, you will recall, advocated by all those tough-minded Republicans taking
their talking points from Jim Baker-Gore would have actually won by a landslide
of exactly three votes or 0.00005 percent of the nearly 6 million votes
counted.
WHO’S COUNTING?
Of course, almost all of these numbers are statistically meaningless,
since the built-in margin of error exceeds the margin of victory. What
was important in Florida, ultimately, was not who voted for whom but who
was doing the counting. The Herald’s review discovered that canvassing
boards in the key counties of Broward and Palm Beach counties discarded
hundreds of ballots that bore marks no different from those on scores of
ballots that were accepted as valid presidential votes. “Had those ballots
instead been counted as valid votes,” the report concludes, “allowing dimples,
pinpricks and hanging chads, Gore would be in the White House today.”
Now take a look at the count in
light of Florida law. The Florida Supreme Court ruled in 1998 that canvassing
boards must examine “damaged or defective” ballots for voter intent and
further defined the term “defective ballot” as “a ballot which is marked
in a manner such that it cannot be read by a scanner.”
According to the Herald, “though
some canvassing boards in optical-scan counties conducted such reviews
on Election Night, most boards around the state did not.” Had they done
so, thousands of votes would have been salvaged long before the election
dispute landed in court.
Under those circumstances — the
ones, recall, that the law mandates — Gore would have won Florida and the
White House by 393 votes. If the only dimples that counted were the ones
where other races were also dimpled, then President Gore’s margin shrinks
to a mere 299 votes. (Gore’s lawyers never even bothered to make this argument,
so incompetent and narrowly focused were their efforts.)
Any number of fair counts, counts
mandated by Florida law, and/or counting methods mandated by common sense
would also have put Gore ahead of Bush. Not even Jim Baker ever tried to
argue that it was not the “intent” of Florida voters to chose Gore by probably
many tens of thousands of votes. The “butterfly ballot,” the confusion
sewn by incompetent and nefarious local election boards, all conspired
to make certain that these votes would be disqualified, by hook or by proverbial
crook.
But the fact is, almost any counting
method that would have yielded a Gore victory would never have landed Al
Gore in the White House; not with Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris controlling
the state’s political machinery; with the Republican legislature willing
to intervene if that failed; with the Republican Congress ready to intervene
if that somehow failed; and (we now know) the Republican U.S. Supreme Court
willing to intervene in just about any circumstances imaginable.
Wednesday’s Herald story is only
the beginning, of course. The Herald and its corporate parent, Knight-Ridder,
several other Florida newspapers and USA Today also are conducting a full
review of at least 110,000 overvotes and promise a conclusion within about
a month. More significantly, a group of national news organizations and
Florida newspapers is conducting a broader recount under the auspices of
the University of Chicago, and this effort should dwarf the Herald’s incomplete
“undervote only” effort that so far, has served to obscure as much as it
has illuminated. Only then will we know just how far the current resident
of the White House had to go to ensure his victory in an election in which,
by all fair measures of democratic intent, he was the clear loser.