Hi BC,
I've heard that Nader argument a jillion times and it's crazy.
Your analogy of the ruler
was right on target. Seems Nader voters are not only incapable
of voting strategically
(and are thus willing to accept their least preferred alternative),
but many of them have
forgotten how Nader himself is a sell-out; owning huge amounts
of stock in many of the
big corporations he claims as the enemy.
I agree with much of Nader's message, but not his tactics. It
became pretty clear early on
in this last election that his only real goal was self-aggrandizement.
In any case, there was
absolutely zero chance of Nader winning that election, or any
third party candidate, for
that matter, and his candidacy did give the election to Bush.
Think about it like this (this is called "Arrow's Paradox of Voting"):
There are 3 candidates:
Candidate A = George W. Bush
Candidate B = Al Gore
Candidate C = Ralph Nader
(I won't count Buchanan because he was hardly a blip on the radar.)
Each voter has a ranking of the 3 candidates. We can also therefore
argue that voters generally fall
into 3 categories: Bush voters, Gore voters, and Nader voters.
Using simple logic and a glance of the
policy positions of the 3 candidates, we can presume that the
3 types of voters ranked the candidates thusly:
Voters "A"- 1) Bush, 2) Gore, 3) Nader
Voters "B"- 1) Gore, 2) Nader, 3) Bush
Voters "C"- 1) Nader, 2) Gore, 3) Bush
By voting sincerely (i.e. for the candidate you want), rather
than strategically,
A gets 48.5%, B gets 48.5%, and C gets 3% of the vote (approximately).
Given that Nader and Gore (candidates B and C) are closer on the
ideolgical spectrum than Nader and Bush
(candidates C and A), and likely are closer than Bush and Gore
(candidates A and B)...though Nader voters
might argue with that..., we get the result we did- a victory
for the candidate that was, in all likelihood,
the *least preferred* among the 3 candidates of the majority
of voters (51.5%).
This of course doesn't count the 50% of registered voters who
didn't turn out, and in effect,
voted against democracy itself, but that's another story.
Now, voting sincerely isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless there
exists a set of electoral rules that makes it
impossible for anyone other than a major party candidate to win
an election. (I won't bother going into the
details of this, but it should be obvious anyway.) In that case,
and until the electoral rules are revised,
elections are and should be treated as a race between the 2 major
party candidates.
The election of 1992 is another example of this. Clinton got 43%
of the vote, Bush got 38%, and Perot got 19%.
Given that Perot and Bush were arguably closer on the "ruler",
and therefore that both Bush and Perot voters
probably ranked Clinton as their 3rd choice, the person who was
the least preferred by the majority of the
people went on to win the election.
(I know this isn't necessarily something you want to hear, given
your support of Clinton,
but his performance in '96 should vindicate him in any case.)
Just as Perot probably gave Clinton the election in '92, Nader gave it to Bush in '00.
Furthermore, Nader voters are either clueless or full of it when
they say they don't have a preference
between A and B (Bush and Gore) because they are both crooks.
Granted that may be true, but we are
talking about degree of crookedness here.
Under which regime are the Greens likely to have more influence
and stand a better
chance of some of their message, and maybe even policies, getting
through?
That's a no brainer.
Gore may be the slightly lesser of two evils, but slightly is better than nothing, right?
As I said earlier, I tend to align myself with much of the message
in the Nader platform, however running
a presidential election is NOT the way to push that message.
If Nader voters really want to install some
Greens in public office, they should not start with the presidency,
where they stand zero chance of winning,
but rather at the level of local and congressional elections.
In many small districts, it would not be
impossible for a third party candidate to get a plurality of
votes, and if the Greens targeted and campaigned
strategically, they could likely see a handfull of Greens in
the House of Representatives in the next couple
of elections. Once the party earns some legitimacy by its presence
in congress, it could continue to build up
its base and resources, push for electoral reform, and then,
down the road, *legitimately* run a candidate
for the presidency. But putting all it's resources into a lost
cause is a ridiculous waste of funds.
And the saddest part is that instead of gaining credibility and
recognition though running a candidate in
the big race, the Green party has suffered a loss of legitimacy,
a complete draining of their resources,
and a serious blow to their morale.
Cynthia