BERKELEY--Texas Gov. George W. Bush rails against Democrats, calling them
the "big
government"
party. Vice President Al Gore says that Bush is a supply-side elitist and
the GOP is the
party
of the rich and powerful. The candidates' economic game plans reflect their
fundamental
differences.
Gore maintains that the government has the responsibility to initiate actions
to keep the
economy
on the right track. Bush believes the free market can solve most of the
country's social
problems
and wants to privatize parts of Social Security and Medicare.
A businessman I know, who voted for George Bush eight years ago and Bill
Clinton in 1996, put it
this way:
"Gore sounds really impressive, and I have to admit that his social programs
seem good. But
I'm worried
the Democrats can't manage the country as well, and they'll get into my
wallet." Many
voters
agree. Many polls echo the businessman's views. But are Republicans better
managers of the
economy?
Don't count on this question being examined and answered in a full, open
and honest debate.
Twenty
years ago, we entered a new phase of presidential politics. The focus now
is on who can
package
the best campaign image, rather than who can demonstrate the most capacity
to govern. The
country's
political, economic and social life has been reduced to a battle of 15-second
sound bites and
30-second
commercials, with results reported like a football score.
But we don't have to depend on whomever spends the most advertising bucks.
We can
look to the record.
So here's the Economic Sweepstakes Quiz. The rules are simple: Guess which
president since
World
War II did best on these eight generally accepted measures of good management
of the
nation's
economy. You can choose among five Republicans (Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard
M.
Nixon,
Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George Bush) and five Democrats (Harry S.
Truman, John
F. Kennedy,
Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton).
Which president produced:
1. The largest growth in the gross domestic product?
2. The largest growth in jobs?
3. The biggest increase in personal disposable income after taxes?
4. The largest growth in industrial production?
5. The biggest rise in hourly wages?
6. The lowest Misery Index (inflation plus unemployment)?
7. The lowest inflation?
8. The largest reduction in the deficit?
The answers are:
1. Truman
2. Carter
3. Johnson
4. Kennedy
5. Johnson
6. Truman
7. Truman
8. Clinton
In the Economic Sweepstakes, Democratic presidents trounce Republicans
eight times out of eight!
If this
isn't enough to destroy the myth that the economy has performed better
under Republicans, the
stock
market has also done better under Democrats. The Dow Jones industrial average
during the
20th century
has risen, on average, 7.3% a year under Republican presidents. Under Democrats,
it
rose 10.3%,
which means investors gained a whopping 41% more.
That's the historical record.
While thinking about the record of who manages the economy better, it might
be wise to keep in
mind the
admonition of the philosopher George Santayana, who said "Those who cannot
remember
the past
are condemned to repeat it." *
- - -
Arthur
Blaustein, Former Chairman of President Jimmy Carter's National Advisory
Council on
Economic
Opportunity, Teaches Social and Economic Policy at Uc Berkeley
Copyright 2000 Los Angeles Times