The Past Through Tomorrow
                                                                      by D.A. Friedrichs

                                                          The following is a fictitious report to the US Joint Chiefs of Staff
                                                          summarizing the War in Afghanistan. To date, the events described
                                                          have come to pass. No one knows if the future events described will occur.
                                                          We can only hope for the best.

                                                          JOINT CHIEF’S OF STAFF INTRODUCTION

                                                          The US entered the territory of Afghanistan in
                                                          the last days of September 2001 with the
                                                          mission of "rendering ineffective the Al Qaeda
                                                          terrorist organizations and their Taliban allies
                                                          controlling Afghanistan.” Thus, with this
                                                          extremely vague goal and limited military
                                                          planning time, the US peoples were cast into a
                                                          bloody war that would last for nine years, one
                                                          month and eighteen days. The war took the
                                                          lives of 55,000 US citizens and did not result in
                                                          the desired victory for the government.

                                                          At the same time, the unsatisfactory political
                                                          and military-strategic results of the war should,
                                                          in no way reflect adversely on the quality of the
                                                          US armed forces, especially in the area of
                                                          operational art and tactics. During the course of
                                                          the war, US operational art and tactics
                                                          developed under the particular conditions of
                                                          Afghanistan – the physical geography, the local
                                                          economy, the peoples, the history and the
                                                          internal and foreign affairs of the last decade.

                                                          In light of the defining military-political missions
                                                          and ongoing combat, the conduct of the
                                                          US-Taliban War can be divided into four phases.

                                                          PHASE 1 (October 2001 – December 2001)

                                                          This phase began with the entry of US forces
                                                          into Afghanistan, their stationing in garrisons,
                                                          and their final organization for securing bases
                                                          and various installations. During this phase, the
                                                          enemy deployed comparatively powerful forces
                                                          against the US forces. The US forces (Special
                                                          Forces and air assets) did not avoid direct
                                                          conflict with them. The US forces fighting
                                                          alongside Northern Alliance forces, took the
                                                          most difficult missions for themselves. The
                                                          Northern Alliance forces were poorly trained to
                                                          conduct independent actions and attacked only
                                                          after US bombardment guaranteed success in
                                                          the fulfillment of operational and tactical missions.

                                                          PHASE 2 (January 2002 – February 2007)

                                                          Active combat characterized this phase. US
                                                          forces undertook combat on a wide scale,
                                                          mainly employing only US forces, but also
                                                          conducting joint actions with units of the former
                                                          Northern Alliance and newly constituted Afghan
                                                          Army. By the start of this phase, the enemy,
                                                          having suffered heavy losses, was switching to
                                                          guerrilla tactics and moving into the mountains.
                                                          Principally, these tactics consisted of avoiding
                                                          combat with superior US forces; conducting
                                                          surprise action against small groups; and
                                                          refusing to fight conventional, positional warfare
                                                          while conducting widespread maneuver using
                                                          autonomous groups, and detachments. If the
                                                          Taliban were unable to avoid combat, they
                                                          reverted to close combat where it was difficult,
                                                          if not impossible, to use air strikes and artillery
                                                          fire against their dug-in firing positions. Under
                                                          these circumstances, the US forces attempted
                                                          to conduct “combat operations” with a clear
                                                          superiority in forces and means.

                                                          PHASE 3 (March 2007 – November 2008)

                                                          During this phase, the US conducted a
                                                          two-step conversion from primary active
                                                          combat to supporting reconstituted Afghan
                                                          Army forces with aviation, artillery and engineer
                                                          subunits. US airmobile, airborne and light
                                                          infantry forces became the reserves to raise the
                                                          morale and warrior spirit of the friendly Afghan
                                                          forces. US Special Forces continued to operate
                                                          to stop the supply of weapons and ammunition
                                                          from across the border. During this phase, US
                                                          authorities began withdrawing forces from the country.

                                                          PHASE 4 (December 2008 – December 2010)

                                                          This phase marked by US forces’ participation
                                                          in the Afghan government’s program of national
                                                          reconciliation. During this time, the US forces
                                                          conducted virtually no offensive actions and
                                                          went into combat only when attacked by the
                                                          Taliban or when supporting combat by Afghan
                                                          forces. During this phase, the US forces
                                                          prepared for their total withdrawal.

                                                          END

                                                          Interestingly, this “fictitious” account is quite
                                                          true. The original story is, of course, a summary
                                                          of the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War. The
                                                          report above was gleaned, with no major
                                                          editing, from the original study prepared for the
                                                          General Staff of the Soviet Union and published
                                                          under the title  “The Soviet-Afghan War: How a
                                                          Superpower Fought and Lost” (pages 12-14).
                                                          The only changes made (other than
                                                          grammatical) were as follows …

                                                               All dates were shifted 22 years and 11
                                                               months ahead. Soviet became US
                                                               Various unit and command designations
                                                               changed for appropriate country
                                                               Democratic Republic of Afghanistan
                                                               (DRA) became Northern Alliance or
                                                               reconstituted Afghan Army Mujahideen
                                                               forces became Taliban forces

                                                          It is quite frightening to realize just how similar
                                                          our nation’s actions have been and appear to
                                                          be heading when compared this way. Phase I
                                                          was nearly identical, if not in details, then in
                                                          outcome, to the Soviet invasion in 1979 and
                                                          early 1980. The recently concluded “Operation
                                                          Anaconda” is a classic Phase 2 type operation.
                                                          Our efforts to reconstitute an Afghan national
                                                          army are the first steps toward Phase III.

                                                          One can only hope that this does not happen and
                                                          the rest of the story turns out to indeed be fiction.
 
 

                                                                                  D.A. Friedrichs
 

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