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by the Liberal Bastard
I’m looking at the Ometepe tribe today, based on the preview interviews and the short biographies
that have been published at cbs.com on each player. After watching almost all of the seasons,
I think I can make an almost educated (SWAG) guess on how they will succeed or fail.
Once again, there are no spoilers here. Everything is my opinion, and, just like an ass, we all got one.
There are always role players on Survivor – it is inevitable. There are always one or two “rednecks”,
usually from the South, who seem to prosper in the game (J.T., Jane); the bossy types, who are almost
always the first boots because they annoy everybody; the young bimbos, usually kept around until the late
game for their vote; the smart talented young people, who are the main players and usually finish high
(Parvati, Ozzie); the business types who seem to last a while (Marty); the annoying young bucks, sometimes
with an added element of bigotry, who generally get booted in midgame; the gay guys, who will either go
quickly or make it to the end (Todd); the irritants, people who can’t be dumped fast enough (Wendy);
and the old farts, who generally get booted quickly unless they show a needed skill, alliance or ability
(Tom, Terry, Rupert). You occasionally see the retired athlete or celebrity (Jimmy Johnson, Crystal),
usually briefly, and the total wackjobs, who go home first or quit in the middle of the game (Wanda, Janna, NaOnka).
First off, let’s take a look at the Ometepe Tribe:
Andrea Boehlke, 21 from Random Lake, Wis.
Occupation: Student
Andrea compares herself to J.T. and Parvati, two former winners of Survivor. At first glance,
she seems to fall into the classic bimbo category, but if you look at her background, she appears
to be far sharper than that. She paid for her own college education and made the dean’s list as well;
not an easy thing to do. She also has a lot of outdoor experience, so I think she will not have a
problem in the wilderness. She was also raised on a farm, so she won’t shy away from the nastier
aspects of the game (chicken, anyone?). If she can handle the social aspect of the game, which is
likely, she should do well. Will she win? Possibly, but I’d bet a place on the jury is more likely.
Predicted Finish: Late boot (fourth place finish) or finalist.
Matt Elrod, 22 from Nashville, TN
Occupation: pre-med student
At first glance, looks like a rehash of Judson (Fabio) from last season, but may be a bit deeper
and maybe sharper. If he lays low and tries not to attract attention, he’ll make the merge.
He mentions in his intro that he might have to be by himself on occasion, which is never a good
thing in a social game. Matt may have some problems because of this, and if he pisses off the
wrong people at the wrong time, he’s gone. He’s probably an early boot, unless he plays a really
careful game. He may last a couple of weeks, but I think he’ll go about fourth or fifth. I don’t
see a repeat of Fabio this time.
Predicted Finish: Fourth boot.
Francesca Hogi, 36 from Washington, DC
Occupation: Attorney
Francesca is very (brashly?) confident, which could lead to a possible quick exit when you
combine this with her love of trash talk. Believe it or not, some people don’t like trash talk
and may take offence, which is fatal here. Also, saying that you are “determined, stubborn
and opinionated” does not bode well. Those types don’t last long; they piss people off too much.
If she fails to make a strong alliance quickly, she’s bound for an early exit. I think she’s gonna
annoy people quickly.
Predicted Finish: Second or third boot.
Kristina Kell, 46 from Malibu, CA
Occupation: law student
Older players, especially women, don’t have a good track record in this game, though Kristina
appears to be pretty tough. However, she sounds like the person that might annoy just about
everybody. Bad sign: her pet peeve is whiners. Survivor is definitely not the place for people
who dislike whiners. She might go early, first or second exit. On the other hand, if she plays
the mother-hen role and hides any annoyances (see Holly), she could make it to the late jury stage.
Her finish will depend on how she interacts with her fellow contestants, but if she screws up
a challenge, she’s gone.
Predicted Finish: She’ll make the merge, but not much further.
Grant Mattos, 29 from West Hollywood, CA
Occupation: yoga instructor
Grant is a former NFL player. He’s a Real Tough guy, but he’ll need to turn the testosterone
down a bit to survive any length of time. Celebrities tend to have a short life in this game
(see Jimmy Johnson). May make it to the merge, but I’d bet he’ll be gone as soon as the tribe
doesn’t need his strength anymore. He also dislikes Russell, so if he gets on a tribe with Russell,
he’s gonna be on thin ice if Russell figures it out. Also, he says he’s playing for the “experience”
which never looks good; aren’t you here for the money? Might make the merge, but he’ll
be gone soon thereafter as a threat.
Predicted Finish: Booted immediately before the merge or right thereafter.
Phillip Sheppard, 52 from Santa Monica, CA
Occupation: technology executive
He appears to be very competent, tough, and intelligent. Phillip may go far if he doesn’t
piss anybody off, but he’s much older than the rest of his tribe – not usually a good thing.
He’ll do well socially, but he’ll need to show up at challenges to stay in the game (same as
Kristina). Possible late jury, but could go early (sixth or seventh) if he makes a mistake –
older players have a very short leash with the younger players. He needs allies ASAP or
he’s toast, unless he can assert a leader role.
Predicted Finish: Sixth boot or late jury.
Natalie Tenerelli, 19 from Acton, CA
Occupation: professional dancer
A 19 year old pro dancer? Extremely young people, like the old folks, generally don’t make
it too far. To make things worse, she has not watched a lot of Survivor, and may not have
a clue about how the game is played (she was a recruit.) She calls Natalie from Samoa her
favorite contestant – the classic under the radar player. If she flies under the radar, like
Natalie did, she could make the finals as the tag-a-long, but I’m saying a midgame boot,
unless she quickly makes a strong alliance to protect herself. No chance of making the jury,
unless she teams up with Russell or an equally powerful alliance.
Predicted Finish: Eighth boot.
Ashley Underwood, 25, Benton, ME
Occupation: Nurse
She does a LOT of things, including beauty pageants and playing pro basketball in Europe.
Would assign her to the Bimbo squad, but she appears to be pretty tough, athletic and smart.
She reminds me of Parvati in a way, but might not have Parv’s presence of mind or smarts.
She, according to her bio, has a number of pet peeves, including know-it-alls and lazy people.
Again, not good if you are playing Survivor. She’ll have to play a careful game, and make
a good alliance. If she does then she may be late jury or a finalist, but she could go early
if she’s not careful. I’d bet on a late jury boot.
Predicted Finish: Late Jury – fifth or sixth finish.
That’s it for now; the other tribe next week.